My Say: Asean’s future lies in its own hands

In The Great Convergence, Richard Baldwin argues that revolutionary advances in information and communication technology (ICT) transformed globalisation in the 1990s with an economic logic only a few could fathom. In any event, the winds of change heralded the prospect of a high tech-low wages combo that drove accelerated growth in global trade as well as swift industrialisation of developing nations.

Asean, with a market size of 655 million population that will grow to become the fourth largest in the world in half a decade, is at the forefront of these changing times. At the Asean Future Forum 2025 in Hanoi last month, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim emphasised that recent global disruptions have highlighted the fragility of the global order and its foundational structures and called on the bloc to reinforce its centrality, one that it must earn and re-earn.

There is a shared consensus that the future of Asean is closely tied to the unity and cohesion among the member states. While the states may have differences, this should not be a stumbling block to realising their shared vision of a united, inclusive and resilient Asean, which was also the theme of the forum. Equally important is the need to embrace the new drivers of growth, such as renewable energy and digital transformation.

As Asean captures the next phase of expansion, its demographic power becomes a formidable accelerator, driving the region’s economic development. But Asean will face challenges from rising protectionism and nationalism by some of its largest dialogue partners — where power is leveraged to outweigh rules in advancing one’s interests. Ergo, it is essential for Asean to reinforce its centrality and remain vigilant.

Meanwhile, the bifurcation of geopolitics and geoeconomics has to stop in as much as the latter should in many ways determine the former. After all, since the 2003 Asean Summit in Bali and the signing of the Bali Concord II, member states have perceived the construction of security and economic communities in Southeast Asia as integral and mutually reinforcing.

Instead of each country pursuing its own trade path, Asean must unite to complement each other and become a powerhouse in industries like semiconductor chips, rare-earth materials, agriculture and manufacturing. This can be achieved through joint infrastructure projects, capacity building, expertise sharing and trade agreements with other regions and dialogue partners.

At the same time, Asean must embrace its unique strengths and differentiations, develop its own solutions based on shared interests and stand firm on its values. This includes advocating cooperation over competition, inclusivity over exclusion and fostering mutual respect over hatred. This is further reflected in Asean’s principles of consensus, non-interference and peaceful dispute resolution. Indeed, it is also values like these that resonated with Asean’s prospective newest incoming member, Timor-Leste.

The goal is to equip Asean to face future challenges so that the economic growth of each member country will benefit all economies in the region. More significantly, this collective approach strengthens the bargaining power of Asean as a unified and cohesive bloc.

Envisioning a sustainable Asean means ensuring long-term strategic economic development for all member states and securing environmental viability. Efforts towards achieving these objectives must be urgently undertaken and Malaysia’s Asean chairmanship has proposed and pledged commitments to several measures.

On the economic front, the weaponisation of trade by the US towards longstanding allies and partners poses a major challenge to the export-reliant economies of Southeast Asia. The disruption in conventional economic and trading practices necessitates Asean to forge economic relations with new partners and consequentially, to strengthen economic integration. Malaysia will host the inaugural Asean-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-China Summit and this reflects the grouping’s dexterity to create opportunity by exploring beyond their traditional partners.

Enhanced integration among member states will take place through various initiatives. The low-hanging fruit is to increase the volume of intra-trade, which currently remains at 22% of total Asean trade. The upgrading of the Asean Trade in Goods Agreement is set to remedy this deficiency. Other priorities include the conclusion of the Digital Economy Framework Agreement and the creation of a regional semiconductor supply chain framework. Having an integrated system coupled with a resilient supply chain will prepare Asean to face the present and future geostrategic challenges.

Ensuring continuous economic growth for the grouping goes hand in hand with the responsibility of maintaining the region’s environmental sustainability. With energy transition and green infrastructure being identified as impending economic catalysts, the shared eagerness to establish the Asean Power Grid underscores the grouping’s commitment to such a future. Other green agenda items, such as sustainable trading practices, are also worth undertaking to position Asean as an attractive trading partner while safeguarding the environment.

At the end of the day, for Asean to be able to navigate the geopolitical challenges and secure a sustainable future together, personal synergy among its leaders is crucial. Frank and candid exchanges that can only be had when leaders have cordial relations are helpful in resolving differences of opinion and contentious issues. Also, the bureaucratic decision-making process can be expedited when leaders are of the same mind.

This is reflected in Anwar’s engagements with his counterparts in Asean and beyond. At the Asean level, the rapport shown among the leaders in Vientiane last year and Hanoi recently must be further shored up in Kuala Lumpur. Asean will need this in the years ahead to ride the wave of opportunities and ride out challenges together. All of us in Malaysia, in the public and private sectors, civil society organisations, academia and so on, must ensure that we do our part in this endeavour.

This article first appeared in Forum, The Edge Malaysia Weekly on March 17, 2025 – March 23, 2025